Saturday, March 21, 2009

"Flee the bear but miss the bull?"

Well known indexing-focused US mutual fund Vanguard, points out using an interactive illustration, how of the nine US bear markets between 1950 and 2003, in all but one case, the market snapped back dramatically within one year of "hitting bottom."
At Vanguard, we're confident that the market will recover, and we're equally resolute in our belief that investing in stocks can be the best option for building wealth over the long run. And being out of the market when a recovery occurs can be costly, as history shows.

..."Historical data can't be used to predict the future, but they do tell us that the stock market has been remarkably resilient over long stretches of time," (Vanguard's chief investment officer Gus Sauter) said. "Investors who were patient during periods of stress and dislocation were ultimately rewarded for their willingness to bear market risk."

..."In the past, bear markets have been buying opportunities," Mr. Sauter said. "Although we certainly don't know when market or economic conditions will improve, and we'd be foolish to try to pinpoint the 'trough' of the current bear market, the historical implications for investors are pretty clear."

The bottom line: If you react to a sharp decline in your portfolio by fleeing the stock market and abandoning your long-term investing strategy, you'll surrender any chance of benefiting from the market's recovery when it occurs.

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