How the "experts" fared in 2008

Prateek has an interesting post on this at ApnaPaisa:

Miss 1: India is decoupled and will continue to grow in excess of 8% (GDP growth) - Well not only did the economist pack get this one wrong, our very own economic agencies and the infamous ministers got their expectations horribly wrong. The only saving grace has been that the various economists have been fairly quick to revise their numbers while the others are still arguing that the next few months are tough but then we will bounce back just like a baby on a trampoline.

Miss 2: The classic market trap - 22nd January ‘08 - Sensex @ 17,000 - a life time buying opportunity - Well from the looks of it, the last 11 months have presented more buying opportunities. Everyone including the shoe shine boy at the station had formed a view on the market and 25,000 is the first target of 2008. Fun(d) managers who were on TV boldly stating that any fall in the market should be seen as a buying opportunity, were themselves holding on to cash levels of 25-30% in their funds…strange ?

Miss 3: Oil to boil - Oil, a commodity whose movements are most difficult to predict, saw everyone comment that from levels of USD 100/bl it will cross USD 200 then will peak at USD 250. No one understood the basic economics (Well, I have understood this in hindsight) that a weakening global economy - rising unemployment will see people being conservative thereby leading to demand destruction.

Miss 4: Chinese and Indians eat too much? - World wide there is a shortage of farm land and we Indians with our fellow neighbours are living it in style by eating more than required. This was suppose to keep agriculture commodity (rice, pulses etc) firm. Well, speculation got the better of this pack.