Saturday, February 21, 2009

“This time it’s different”. Really?

Amit Trivedi has a philosophical take on the stock market crash of 2008 in this Moneycontrol.com article:
The market crash was inevitable. It was destined. The reasons that we hear are only the instruments of a much bigger force, called the market. Some of the justifications that we hear today from many experts seem so logical and obvious that sometimes we wonder why we did not see it coming. If this thought has ever crossed your mind, please do not worry. You are not alone. The same experts that give the reasons today were silent then. Unlike the medical profession, in securities markets, there are a lot of experts who can do post-mortem, but very few who can do a correct diagnosis. We get perfect knowledge of the disease after the patient is dead.

The bull market, which may come in the future, is also destined. We will once again come out with the stories justifying why the market started to go up. And those stories will seem very logical and obvious.

But do we learn from the episodes of the past? My understanding is that years from now, once again all the lessons of the current crash will remain of academic interest only. The practitioners will start to take risks once again as there will be pressure to increase return on capital. There will once again be some new instruments, new markets, and new phenomenon that will catch the investor's fancy. The euphoria will be justified with the age old words, “This time it’s different” – the four words described as the most dangerous in financial markets by legendary investor Sir John Templeton.
(All emphasis mine)

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